Both is the answer to the question posed by the above Blog title.
And to what does the question refer? The British General Election results of Thursday 12 December 2019.
But before I venture some thoughts about what last Thursday’s results might mean for IndyRef2, I’d like to go back to the UK General Election of 1992. It may be instructive to remember the words of Jim Sillars, a then prominent Scottish Nationalist politician and Westminster Parliamentarian:
‘We have not yet resolved the paradox of when Scotland votes for the Labour Party and England votes for the Tories [the Conservative Party].’
Returning to the events of the General Election just past, Sillars’ remarks can be easily updated to read what happens when Scotland votes for the Scottish Nationalist Party, but England votes for the Conservatives?
Like all good questions, there is no easy answer to it. Yes, Boris Johnson MP is now the Prime Minister of a Conservative Party majority UK Government. Brexit will now almost get done (excuse the poor English – not mine).
And yet, there may be trouble ahead.
As predicted, the UK Government has restated its opposition to Indyref2.
Yesterday, during Sophy Ridge’s Show on Sky News, Michael Gove MP, a senior UK Cabinet Minister, rejected the idea of a second independence referendum (please see the link below):
Nicola Sturgeon MSP, First Minister of Scotland quickly responded by stating that Scotland ‘cannot be imprisoned’ within the UK:
So this is where law and high politics collide.
Firstly, what’s the legal position?
The last Referendum on the question of Scottish Independence (held on Thursday 18 September 2014) too place because the then UK Government and Parliament gave their consent. This constitutional arrangement became known as the Edinburgh (St Andrew’s) Agreement of 15 October 2012 and operated under the auspices of Section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998.
Secondly, what’s the political position and where does the Scottish Government go from here?
This is about the political long game and the Scottish Government is attempting to shame the UK Government into giving it the right to hold a second referendum.
Scotland’s First Minister is pointing to her democratic mandate from the Scottish electorate after the SNP increased its share of Westminster parliamentary seats from 35 to 48. Any refusal on part the UK Government to approve another referendum can and will be portrayed as a deliberate denial of the Scottish people’s fundamental democratic rights.
I often have to remind my students that when we elect a Parliament, we are appointing legislators (law makers) – as well as politicians.
Mr Johnson is clearly political master of all he surveys …
… for now at least.
Both Governments are clearly playing to their respective constituencies and it will be interesting to see if a greater impetus for Scottish independence begins to build north of the border.
The next Scottish parliamentary elections in May 2021 will provide some idea of the strength (or weakness) of the pro-independence cause.
Currently, despite the SNP’s electoral successes last Thursday night, Nicola Sturgeon and her Government certainly have the weaker hand, but in a political poker game of high stakes (the survival or dissolution of the 300 year old union between Scotland and England), high politics may well yet overcome dry, legal arguments.
As the German statesman, Otto von Bismarck noted:
‘Politics is the art of the possible.’
The old statesman also remarked:
‘Politics is not a science, as the professors are apt to suppose. It is an art.’
Who will be the more artful politician: Nicola Sturgeon or Boris Johnson? Time will tell.
Related Blog articles:
A step closer? Indyref2?
Bring it on! (or Indeyref2?)
Copyright Seán J Crossan, 16 December 2019